On June 8, the 78th annual Tony Awards will air live from Radio City Music Hall. The nominators this year met a challenging task with aplomb, leaving out at least a few underwhelming performances and other contributions by marquee names and acknowledging less widely known talent. Selecting a single winner in each category will be even tougher, and the results, as always, will involve personal, professional, and political considerations.
Our theater critic surveys the major categories, offering highly subjective takes on who should be taking Tonys home and at least somewhat educated guesses on who will be doing so.
Best Play
“English,” by Sanaz Toossi
“The Hills of California,” by Jez Butterworth
“John Proctor is the Villain,” by Kimberly Belflower
“Oh, Mary!,” by Cole Escola
“Purpose,” by Branden Jacobs-Jenkins
Should win: Each contender is a beautifully structured piece, crafted with wit and — no pun intended — purpose. (“Purpose” won a Pulitzer Prize this spring, as “English” did two years ago.) For this critic, though, “Hills of California” is the most absorbing and harrowing work, tackling complex and underexplored issues, such as how exploitation and predation can turn women against each other, and how the search for fame can be dangerous in itself.
Will win: Theater insiders went nuts for “Oh, Mary!,” an irreverent, unique, and delightful reimagining of Abraham Lincoln — a Republican president from a very different era — and his spouse.
Best Musical
“Buena Vista Social Club”
“Dead Outlaw”
“Death Becomes Her”
“Maybe Happy Ending”
“Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”
Should/will win: “Maybe Happy Ending,” which traces a love story between two obsolete robots in the not-too-distant future, is the most original, enchanting, and profound new musical to arrive on Broadway in years, and has already been widely recognized as such.
Best Book of a Musical
“Buena Vista Social Club,” by Marco Ramirez
“Dead Outlaw,” by Itamar Moses
“Death Becomes Her,” by Marco Pennette
“Maybe Happy Ending,” by Will Aronson and Hue Park
“Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical,” by David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts
Should/will win: Mr. Moses’s account of a corpse who got passed around over decades by folks hoping to make a buck, based on a true story, is fiendishly clever and darkly hilarious, as well as quite moving at times, but it doesn’t pack as much of an emotional wallop as “Ending.”
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
“Dead Outlaw”: Music & Lyrics by David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna
“Death Becomes Her”: Music & Lyrics by Julia Mattison and Noel Carey
“Maybe Happy Ending”: Music by Will Aronson; Lyrics: Will Aronson and Hue Park
“Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”: Music & Lyrics by David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts
“Real Women Have Curves: The Musical”: Music & Lyrics by Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez
Should/will win: Either “Outlaw” or “Ending” would and should have beaten any other musical nominated in any year since “Hamilton,” but here Messrs. Aronson and Park’s winsome, heart-tugging score will be edged out by the impressively eclectic work of Messrs. Yazbek and Della Penna, which could also be rather poignant.
Best Revival of a Play
“Eureka Day”
“Romeo + Juliet”
“Thornton Wilder’s Our Town”
“Yellow Face”
Should/will win: Self-consciously modern takes on Wilder’s small-town folk and Shakespeare’s doomed lovers got mixed reviews (including some pointed pans), narrowing the race down to two very timely Broadway premieres; of those, only one, David Henry Hwang’s “Yellow Face,” is a semi-autobiographical sendup of identity politics by a Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright, and director Leigh Silverman gave it a briskly entertaining production.
Best Revival of a Musical
“Floyd Collins”
“Gypsy”
“Pirates! The Penzance Musical”
“Sunset Blvd.”
Should win: More than 30 years after the premiere of “Collins,” Tina Landau, the original director and librettist, finally gave the stirring account of a real American tragedy the epic Broadway production it has always deserved.
Will win: Director and producer Jamie Lloyd’s superficially stark but overheated interpretations of classic plays have earned a bevy of nominations in recent years; with “Sunset,” he brought his bombast to musical theater, and many insiders loved it.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck”
Cole Escola, “Oh, Mary!”
Jon Michael Hill, “Purpose”
Daniel Dae Kim, “Yellow Face”
Harry Lennix, “Purpose”
Louis McCartney, “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”
Should/will win: Cole Escola’s giddily outrageous and ecstatically received turn as Mary Todd Lincoln will handily beat Mr. Clooney’s meh performance as Edward R. Murrow — a part that should have gone to stage and screen veteran David Strathairn, who was so much better in the original film.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Laura Donnelly, “The Hills of California”
Mia Farrow, “The Roommate”
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, “Purpose”
Sadie Sink, “John Proctor is the Villain”
Sarah Snook, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Should win: Ms. Donnelly, a magnificent stage actress, earned her second nomination playing two roles — a desperate stage mother and, decades later, her ravaged adult daughter — to shattering effect.
Will win: Ms. Snook, known to TV fans for her razor-sharp, Emmy-winning work on “Succession,” juggled 26 roles, masterfully, and is one of this year’s surest bets.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Darren Criss, “Maybe Happy Ending”
Andrew Durand, “Dead Outlaw”
Tom Francis, “Sunset Blvd.”
Jonathan Groff, “Just in Time”
James Monroe Iglehart, “A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical”
Jeremy Jordan, “Floyd Collins”
Should/will win: Mr. Jordan turns in the most substantial performance of his career as the doomed hero of “Collins,” but Mr. Criss has an equally meaty and more technically challenging role, as a cheerful robot with a fragile heart, and his portrayal is nothing short of breathtaking.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Megan Hilty, “Death Becomes Her”
Audra McDonald, “Gypsy”
Jasmine Amy Rogers, “BOOP! The Musical”
Nicole Scherzinger, “Sunset Blvd.”
Jennifer Simard, “Death Becomes Her”
Should win: As Betty Boop, Ms. Rogers, a 26-year-old Broadway newcomer, brings a nearly 100-year-old cartoon character to life in a performance that’s as moving as it is delightful, full of fire and wonder and pure joy.
Will win: It’s between Ms. Scherzinger and Ms. McDonald, who already holds the record for most performance Tonys, and who could merely walk on stage and drink a cup of coffee and win over a substantial chunk of voters. She does a lot more than that in her undeniably fierce portrait of Mama Rose, so it will likely be Audra’s turn, again.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Glenn Davis, “Purpose”
Gabriel Ebert, “John Proctor is the Villain”
Francis Jue, “Yellow Face”
Bob Odenkirk, “Glengarry Glen Ross”
Conrad Ricamora, “Oh, Mary!”
Should win: Mr. Jue, a veteran of plays and musicals, brought beautifully understated poignance to a character based on Mr. Hwang’s father, and wit to other roles.
Will win: Mr. Odenkirk, a TV favorite for his roles on “Breaking Bad” and “Better Call Saul,” is the most famous in the field, and acquits himself nicely in David Mamet revival, but fame didn’t get his co-stars Kieran Culkin and Bill Burr nominations. Mr. Ricamora, very funny in “Oh, Mary!,” will be buoyed by that show’s other successes.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Tala Ashe, “English”
Jessica Hecht, “Eureka Day”
Marjan Neshat, “English”
Fina Strazza, “John Proctor is the Villain”
Kara Young, “Purpose”
Should/will win: If Ms. Young, who is — as usual — fantastic, wins, it will be her second consecutive victory in this field, after having been nominated four years in a row. That shouldn’t be a factor, but Ms. Hecht, who was equally phenomenal in a rather weightier role, has been one of New York theater’s most distinctive, prolific, and beloved performers for more than 20 years, and only a bridesmaid where the Tonys are concerned, with two previous nominations.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas, “SMASH”
Jeb Brown, “Dead Outlaw”
Danny Burstein, “Gypsy”
Jak Malone, “Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”
Taylor Trensch, “Floyd Collins”
Should win: Doubling as bandleader and bandit, Mr. Brown brings a deadpan drollery to “Outlaw” that makes him an ideal anchor for the show.
Will win: Mr. Malone’s delivery of “Dear Bill,” a sentimental interlude in the otherwise aggressively wacky “Mincemeat,” has been the talk of the town since the London-based production opened here, and will secure him the prize.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Natalie Venetia Belcon, “Buena Vista Social Club”
Julia Knitel, “Dead Outlaw”
Gracie Lawrence, “Just in Time”
Justina Machado, “Real Women Have Curves: The Musical”
Joy Woods, “Gypsy”
Should/will win: Ms. Belcon’s booming voice and presence as Omara Portuondo, based on the Cuban singer of that name, make her a good representative for an exuberant production that would have had better chances in other categories if it hadn’t been such a strong season for new musicals.
Best Direction of a Play
Knud Adams, “English”
Sam Mendes, “The Hills of California”
Sam Pinkleton, “Oh, Mary!”
Danya Taymor, “John Proctor is the Villain”
Kip Williams, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Should/will win: This will likely be the category in which “Hills of California” is recognized, along with the synergy between its playwright and Mr. Mendes — last acknowledged together for their collaboration on 2019’s Tony-winning play, “The Ferryman.”
Best Direction of a Musical
Saheem Ali, “Buena Vista Social Club”
Michael Arden, “Maybe Happy Ending”
David Cromer, “Dead Outlaw”
Christopher Gattelli, “Death Becomes Her”
Jamie Lloyd, “Sunset Blvd.”
Should win: Messrs. Arden and Cromer each did full justice to fabulous material, but “Ending” reverberates more deeply in the end, and as Mr. Arden has done reliably — with a 2023 revival of “Parade,” for instance, that earned him a Tony in this category that year — he rose to the occasion.
Will win: See “Best Revival of a Musical.”
Best Choreography
Joshua Bergasse, “SMASH”
Camille A. Brown, “Gypsy”
Christopher Gattelli, “Death Becomes Her”
Jerry Mitchell, “BOOP! The Musical”
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, “Buena Vista Social Club”
Should/will win: Here’s another tough call, but it’ll come down to Ms. Delgado and her husband, Mr. Peck — already a two-time winner in this field, most recently for his stunning work last year on “Illinoise” — versus Mr. Mitchell, who has won three Tonys, though none in this category since 2013. As inspired and exhilarating as the couple’s work is, the mix of old-school razzle-dazzle and pure heart in “BOOP!” will likely seduce at least a few more voters.
